I don't even know where to start with this one.  I was just starting to convert to the thought that perhaps the media has some solid foundation to bring negative press to the global forum.  Perhaps it was time for me to take off my rose colored glasses and be more pessimistic in my view of our situation.  Baloney!

This intro to a news story by KGUN 9 News Tucson, AZ last night blew my mind!!!!  Where was this newscaster yesterday?  Were they even in the room?  Yesterday we had our local Annual Tucson 2008 Forecast Seminar with Michael Tchong, Trend Analyst, Ubercool,  Dr. Lawrance Yun, Chief Economist and Sr. VP, NAR, and 5 of our top local leaders.  This doom and gloom intro was so unwarranted I was floored. 

Dr. Yun said something really interesting.  I was surprised because I was prepared to not like him based on his predecessors history.  Now I realize there is no way anyone could have predicted what we have gone through over the past 2 years. The only thing we have minimal control over is our knowledg of our local markets.  His message was, in 2008 we should relate to our local markets. Don't let national data affect your local clients. Know your local data and educate them on the difference between the national market and their own....good or bad. 

Can you imagine if we used the National Weather data of averages to determine local weather forecasts?  42 degrees would not work for Tucson, AZ at least 90% of the year.

These are the facts that were presented about our local Tucson market. You will see that this is not the negative hype our local news was trying to engage people in.  I've reverted back to my original opinion of my local media...Shut Up Already or Get the Facts Straight!

Arizona was the fastest growing state in the nation 2006
2007 we were #2 behind Nevada

26.5% ten year net migration to Tucson. Highest of any city of it's size in the USA

Unemployment rate for Tucson is lower than the National average and the lowest in the state of Arizona.

4% wage growth in AZ over the past 12 months

Tucson businesses serve 50 million people within a 1,000 mile radius.

We are known outside of our Tucson as still affordable. Avg $269,000
FHA Loan amount at $240,000 leaves us with many homes to sell

This is the 5th straight month of declining inventory for Tucson. Very healthy.

3 year appreciation average of 42% in Tucson

Home sales up 30% in one year 2005
Flat 2006
Down 2-3 % for 2007
Not a big swing in my opinion.  Leaves us at a 27% growth in 2 years.

Mortgage obligation to income ratios are at a low 22% making it very well managed compared to San Diego at 45% and Miami at 30%

10,000 new homes per year sold 2002 through 2005
5,000 New home sales in 2007
This is a short term adjustment necessary to absorb inventory.

This is not the doom and gloom the news attempted to present. This was actually uplifting and positive news to me. I realize there are markets that are really suffering and it is important that the leaders of those areas come together and bring the facts to their community of Real Estate Agents and Brokers so they can better educate the consumers.

Here is where our local leadership got some of their statistics.
www.realtor.org
TreoAZ.org  Arizona stats
Investmenttrends.org
Marshall Vest, economist and director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management.

Also, here is a link to charts and graphs I created a couple weeks ago when I was trying to understand other markets and relate to their situations.

New Start Charts Etc.