'Deep Throat' in a Lab Coat
January 30, 2007 by Patrick McClellan
It's not often that leaks from geeks make news. So, I won't pass up the opportunity. Here's the latest.
Glaciers are melting, sea level is rising, both at alarming rates. That much we knew (see The Slow Flood). But what's melting the glaciers? Until this week, the world's scientists were only pretty sure. Now they're close to certain -- it's us.
Due this Friday, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases its long-awaited report. Authored by over a thousand scientists, and reviewed by 2500 more, this report represents a scientific consensus as never before on the issues of climate change.
According to the media leaks, their report will likely include the following ominous conclusions:
- scientists are now 90% confident that greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are to blame for the ongoing global temperature rise (up from 66% confident in the UN's last report, in 2001).
- by the year 2100, temperatures will likely rise by at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (up from 2.5 deg F, as projected in the 2001 report).
- and sea level will likely be at least 11 inches higher (three times more than projected in 2001).
And these are best-case scenarios.
Worst case, the leaks suggest, temperatures will rise by 8 deg F, and sea level by 17 inches. Yet,"?even this is"?a compromise"?of several thousand experts. Among them are some who say the facts indicate nothing less than three feet of sea level rise by 2100.
Whatever the case, Friday's report will provide agents with food for deep thought about how climate change will impact the real estate industry -- from seaside safety to "SEER 13", from coastal"?comps to FEMA flood zones, and from insurance availability to the grapes in that bottle of your California Chardonnay.
Just today, committees in both houses of our new Congress began taking bipartisan aim at global warming. Watch the headlines in the coming weeks. Friday's IPCC report will be the cavalry coming over the hill. Expect federal legislation that will ultimately affect real property and those who buy and sell it.














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