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Unless you are disconnected from the media, there is relentless babble about the housing "bubble" and how the sky is falling and, well, aren't we in a housing mess?'

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What is interesting, however, is there are solid, positive facts that still prevail even though our market is said to be soggy and in reality, might really just be "taking a short break". But for those that have been in the business for the past 10+ years, this slow down takes pause for concern."? But then again, it's all in the way you look at it".

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If you've been cruising down the highway at a brisk 100 miles per hour, and slow down to about 80, it may feel like you are crawling along, but in reality, 80 is still above the limit and cruising."? However compared to the faster speed, the contrast seems significant.

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The housing market is a bit like this analogy. In the recent past, the market has been robust, with strong factors driving the activity and NYSE traded builders soaring to all time highs."? While they have pulled back a bit now, not that much has changed when you study the facts, according to a recent article written by new home specialist and author, Bob Schultz .

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In his article, "Bursting the Housing Bubble Myth", he paints quite a different picture."?

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Schultz points out there are several primary factors that have been driving the hot market, including the obvious points like low interest rates, the proliferation of baby boomers with money, which of course, drove up the demand for housing.

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When you add in the stock market investors that switched their focus to real estate, the amazing number of immigrants migrating to this country and a proliferation of international investors buying real property here, one could get the impression real estate was hot and the way to go to make big money quick and easy.

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Interestingly, of late, not much has changed, except for the fact that we've got a bit more supply than demand, which often happens when new construction catches up to delivery dates, and the investors who were in for the short hold flood the market with liquidation."?

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But there is a real benefit in the slower market if you are a serious professional."? It's time to get proactive and not re-active in this fortuitous window of opportunity.

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The facts remain:

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Interest rates are still low and holding;

Baby boomers are still buying and selling;

Immigration will continue to grow"? (According to NAR statistics, by 2010 over 80% of buyers will be immigrants hungry for home ownership!);

Our robust economy will not enable the housing market to crash ' it will only accommodate the modest downturn we have already felt in the humble opinion of this writer;

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Schultz comments in his article that as investor inventory is absorbed the supply and demand will even out and a more level market will emerge

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While there are areas around the country that are softer than others, smart agents will help sellers to offer their properties based on more recent market comparisons and to counsel them to be realistic in their perception of the market place."? Savvy agents understand the pricing of a property is not stationary event, and will consistently "read and study" their local market on a continuous basis to counsel their sellers as they monitor their market position."? In actuality market values are not set by Realtors"? or home owners, but by the buyers who actually pay for the property!"? They simply set the property values when their offers to purchase are accepted and closed.

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The media will continue to "sensationalize" the peaks and valleys of real estate, creating as false impression about the real deal. As professionals, it is incumbent upon us to help guide our customers and clients through the maze of the market with our expertise."? We essentially provide them with counsel in marketing strategies, the providing of accurate market information, improved presentation and negotiating skills, and the use of extraordinary communication skills sets.

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When the market gets tough, the tough get better. Are you ready to ramp up your skills and not only survive but thrive in today's market?"? It's all in how you look at it"

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For more information about solutions for a cooling market visit: www.NewHomeSpecialist.com

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Keep telling yourself there isn't a major economic problem on the horizon. If it helps you sleep better, great, but your "facts" are fundamentally flawed. Interest rates are still low and holding? -Yeah but inventory is at record levels as will be foreclusures glutting the market with more unafordable housing meaning even more competion, if I have to explain this further then just forget about reading this rest of my reply. Why do you think the national home builders are so incentive laden the past year or their stocks are down 50% in the last year? Think they smell something is up? Joe Blow can't compete with a corporation and the fact remains that people will have job transfers, die, become unemployed, divorce and a host of lots of other reasons. These people will HAVE to sell and by increased competition they will get into the same bidding war that drove houses to unsustainable levels, only in the opposite direction. Baby boomers are still buying and selling; - Sure they are... Right now they are the only demographic that can afford homes, people that had ownership since the last "bubble", in the mid 90's. A lot are also pulling out of the market and just upgrading their current homes. The people that aren't buying are the 30 something crowd that have decided paying $1000 a month rent makes more sense in the current market then paying $2500 to own. They are holding out for better deals, increasing their savings and people that bought multiple homes like they were candy, put $100 worth of paint and a coupe stainless steel appliances in them and are TRYING to flip are GETTING stuck with an overpriced "tulip bulb"! Immigration will continue to grow (According to NAR statistics, by 2010 over 80% of buyers will be immigrants hungry for home ownership!); -Peach pickers, ditch diggers and sweepers can't afford 300K homes and even if they get approved for the loans, they are at high risk of default, oh my more inventory! The fact you are using NAR statistics proves to me your living in a pipe dream without any consideration to economic fundamentals, world events past or present. We've been down simalar roads before and this story will end the same. Continue to mislead people with your flawed pathetic logic. Your one of the many I'm sure that helped hype the hysteria without having a clue why housing became big and then complain when mainstream media and economists correct you. Our robust economy will not enable the housing market to crash - it will only accommodate the modest downturn we have already felt in the humble opinion of this writer; -They won't let the enconomy crash? ROFL! Its not allowed, thats your reasoning? Are you that nieve? Do you parents know your using their computer to blog? Here is a link to somebody that I'm sure followed advice from persons with simalar views as your to a tee... http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/
If you are driving along at 20% to 40% appreciation (MPH) and suddenly your car goes into reverse, you are going to drop your transmission on the ground and cause serious damage to your car. Also, with the car moving backwards, you can't tell if you will be able to stop it just part of the way down the hill you just came up, or if you are headed back to the bottom. What is clear is that you have suddenly reversed directions and your car is none the better for the change.
This will likely not get posted. This article is misleading and happy talk at bast with zero facts or numbers to back it up. This is a pep talk, not an article. The migration to the US is mostly of those whom cannot afford real estate and NET INTERSTATE migration is at a negative in the areas that real estate is most expensive. Interest rates are climbing again and will continue to do so. The baby boomers and immigration did not create the demand. Go to any new development and see how many of the new purchses were by flippers trying to make a quick buck. Those have all but gone away and sales in most areas of So Cal where we are are experincing the slowest sales since '96. I would like to see a follow up artilce in about 90 days to see if you still believe any of this or not.
South Florida has melted 35%, Southern California is negative and the lights is Las Vegas are no longer shinning so brightly. No question Terri, the housing market has stalled. The real question is how low will it go?
Terri - Good to see you've at least noticed the market is softening. Do you have the URI for Mr. Schultz' article? It's good to keep up the optimism, but realism might be useful too. There's some pretty hairy stuff going down these days. Should you care to read my post from earlier today at the site of my URL, you'll see that the AEI's Des Lackman, no lightweight, is casually speaking of a US housing bust as "in the bag". It's good to engage with a variety of opinions, and I'm sure you'd have a thing or two to say on our site. Cheers, John M.
Great points, Terri!!! Here in the Hamptons, while some clients (and many agents) are running around doing the "Chicken Little Dance", other are doing great business. It's markets like these where the 80/20 rule becomes the 90/10 rule. md
Excellent article! I am so tired of the press's sensationalization of the facts. This is a fantastic article to send to our clients and hope-to-be clients!

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