Existing-Home Sales Decline, But ... Shows glimmer of hope.
April 22, 2008 by Bonnie Ankle
This is the best time to buy, the cost of properties are down, the interest is low this is the best of all worlds. I see great Opportunities and this article shins a glimmer of hope on this.
Bonnie Ankle; Event Manager - Luxury Home Council
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120886732384734503.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Existing-Home Sales Decline,
But Prices Show Glimmer of Hope
By KELLY EVANS and SUDEEP REDDYApril 22, 2008 3:49 p.m.
Sales of existing homes dropped in March as the housing market slump continued, but two gauges of home prices show a rare glimmer of hope that the turmoil may be easing a bit.
Home sales in San Francisco may be down but competition is hot. Stacey Delo reports on how some homes are seeing 10 or more bidders, and in one case 22.Home sales fell 2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. The drop followed an increase of 2.9% in February. That rise was the first monthly gain since July. Resales fell 19% from March 2007's 6.11 million rate.
The languid sales pace pushed inventories of unsold homes to a 9.9 months' supply at the current sales pace. That large overhang has put downward pressure on prices for months, especially in areas hit hardest by the housing crisis.
Now, though, there are signs that prices might be beginning to stabilize. The median home price rose to $200,700 last month from a revised $195,600 in February, the Realtors' report said. And an index of home prices from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (Ofheo) also released Tuesday, found that prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February from January, the first monthly gain since June.
Both measures have their limitations. The Realtors' data reflect a changing mix of homes, rather than the same houses being bought and sold. The Ofheo index, meanwhile, tracks homes purchased with government-backed mortgage products, so it excludes homes financed with subprime mortgages. Still, the data suggest the sales and price declines may be slowing.
"While it remains too early to definitively call a bottom, we continue to argue that home sales will stabilize (albeit at very low levels) by mid-year," Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Stamford, Conn., said in a note to clients.
Existing-home sales dropped 6.5% in the Midwest last month and 3.5% in the South, and rose 2.2% in the West and Northeast. Single-family home sales fell 2.7% in while sales of condominiums and co-ops rose by 3.6%, the second increase in a row, by 3.6%.
The fate of the housing market could determine the shape and length of the current economic downturn. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, warned that the U.S. may be in for a long period of "anemic growth -- longer than two quarters." (Read excerpts from the interview.)
But, he said, "I don't think it needs to be all that deep. We've really weathered a hell of a setback…. This strikes deep at the heart of the ordinary, hardworking consumer. ... They're getting multiple whammies -- slow economic growth, job insecurity, their homes are perceived to be worth less. And they're paying more at the pump and more for food. So the consumer is really getting hammered. And yet they've held up fairly well so far. I would expect them to change their behavioral patterns."
He also said, in the Monday interview, that slower economic growth may not resolve mounting concerns about inflation because he anticipates only a mild slowdown in world demand. "We've been weakening and we haven't seen the price responses," he said. Mr. Fisher voted against lowering interest rates at the last two meetings of the Federal Reserve's policy committee, and in a recent speech expressed "strong reluctance" to cutting rates further.
The Fed is expected to lower interest rates again at its April 29-30 meeting. Many analysts expect the Fed, which has cut its benchmark federal-funds rate repeatedly to spur the economy, to reduce the rate by another quarter percentage point, to 2%. But some worry the rate cuts could fuel a burgeoning global inflation problem.
"Will the U.S. slowing down really damp the price of oil, or the price of food, rice, or flour, cornmeal, the price of steel? … It's not clear to me that a mild slowdown will put a dent in price pressures domestically," Mr. Fisher said. "Obviously if you have a tail risk of a very severe global slowdown, then yes, I can see that. I don't see that in the cards at least from my limited perspective."
Write to Kelly Evans at kelly.evans@wsj.com and Sudeep Reddy at sudeep.reddy@wsj.com














Post new comment